The Indian healthcare industry has tided over many shock waves of the Covid -19 virus at regular intervals in the last 2 to 3 years, the Delta variant which struck the country unguarded in April-May 2021 was the most devastating in terms of people succumbing to the virus. 

The healthcare infrastructure of the country was completely overwhelmed and cries of families demanding oxygen support for their loved ones were heard in every corner of the country. As per the Health Ministry’s data 5,30,726 people have died due to the virus since the pandemic first struck India while unofficial estimates put this number 10x high. 

Globally the worst of the Covid 19 pandemic is still not over and is being seen in China. Experts contend that Beijing is presently witnessing a peak in its Covid tally, facing a state of helplessness with overflowing hospitals and crematoriums and pharmacies being stripped of key medicines. As per WHO, Omicron sublineages BA.5.2 and BF.7 are driving the caseload accounting for 97.5 percent of all local infections in the land of the red dragon.

Currently India stands well guarded with over 220 crore vaccine doses administered with over 95 crore people doubly vaccinated and over 22 crore people taking the booster dose. With its active Covid cases tally at 2,149 as of 15 January 2023, while the recovery rate stands at 98.8 percent.

Medical experts believe the various sublineages of the Omicron variant waves perhaps have not caused such havoc in India but the possibility of a serious outbreak like the Delta wave cannot be ruled out. 

“It's unlikely to have a major wave with  minor variants of what already is in circulation like the Omicron variants such as  XBB 1.5, BA 2.75, BA.5 or the original XBB variant, as in the last 10 months there have been only minor waves in India such as the Kerala upsurge in September last year which have been effectively controlled. But it's biologically plausible that an all new version could appear,” said Dr Rajeev Jayadevan, Co-Chairman National IMA Covid Task Force.

Dr Jayadevan further said that a new wave could come up with new Covid variants from anywhere in the world including India, or another possibility could be the Omicron mutating further and escaping the immunity of the Indian population. 

Hospitals Alarmed 

Amid a global rise in Covid cases in December 2022, safety drills were conducted across India to check whether hospitals are ready to deal with any sudden surge in the number of cases. Hospitals are backing themselves having learned from the past of shortage of beds, oxygen, medicines and other medical facilities and are putting in place the resources to fight another outbreak.

“I believe most hospitals have got their acts together, in terms of usage of appropriate medications, we created the treatment protocol or the redbook with 72 updates over the last two and half years. This was shared with more than three thousand nursing homes, so it may have taken us three and four months to start planning during the first wave but god forbid we get into the next pandemic, we will be up and ready in 15 days,” said Dr Sangita Reddy, Joint MD, Apollo Hospitals.

Jasdeep Singh, Group Chief Executive Officer, CARE Hospitals Group said that the importance of public health has now been accepted by both the government and private players. “They have implemented various measures, such as improving the infrastructure and availability of Intensive Care Units (ICU) and High Dependency Units (HDU), ensuring the availability and use of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) for healthcare workers, and implementing strict infection control protocols to prevent the spread of the virus,” said Singh.

Speaking on the role of the frontline responders Dr Sharad Kumar Agarwal, National Chairman, IMA Hospital Board of India, stated that doctors are always on the battlefield leading the country’s attack, “Within IMA we keep organising various medical education programs with doctors on the latest developments around the world and in the last three years we have done hundreds of seminars to better discuss the developments of the virus, its variants and planning roadmaps accordingly, stated Dr Agarwal.

Revamps In Infrastructure

The post pandemic revamping of hospital infrastructure has seen strides in healthcare providers becoming self dependent on oxygen support, driving digital strength , and are creating better monitoring systems to better predict and control the next outbreak.

“Our Gurugram hospital unit inaugurated an oxygen plant which was set up along with global food major Cargill. This move came in view of the rising Covid cases, fearing another wave of Covid-19. In order to handle situations like this, all members of our staff have also been trained, said Dr Santy Sajan, Group COO, Paras Healthcare.

Enumerating on the need of driving digital strength to better deal with outbreaks Dr Reddy said that Apollo currently has 14 million people on Apollo 24x7 with 6,000 doctors catering on the platform, ready to video consult if the patients cannot reach them physically. 

She further said “our diagnostic team has over 800 phlebotomists, who can go to a home and pick up samples and take them to the nearest labs.”

Indian private hospitals are also building better surveillance systems, Gautam Khanna, CEO, PD Hinduja Hospital and MRC said we are establishing effective surveillance and response systems to track and respond to new cases of Covid-19 while also implementing new policies and procedures to support the mental health and well-being of staff and patients.

Roadmap For Future Pandemics 

A 2022 study published in the scientific journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences has indicated that recurrence of an extreme event like the Covid 19 pandemic has significantly tripled over the last 400 years. 

The study said that there is over a 2.5 percent chance of an extreme event such as the Covid 19 pandemic happening every year. The research further implies that the chances of experiencing an extreme event like this in one’s lifetime have increased to 76 percent.

Singh believes investing in research and developing new treatments and technologies can help to address future pandemics including developing new vaccines, better combinations of drugs, rapid diagnostic tests and point-of-care treatments. 

Khanna stated that increasing investment in healthcare services, potentially by raising the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare to about 3 percent and recruiting, training, and better engaging with healthcare workers, through targeted policies and incentives could also be a boon in dealing with future pandemics. “We also need to improve the supply chain management and logistics to ensure that essential supplies and equipment are available when needed,” he added.

But we do not know what we do not know, said Dr Reddy adding that the next pandemic can attack in a completely different way, “this one was a respiratory, if the next one is different in the methodology, then we will have to relearn the treatment modalities,” she said.

The Industry experts opine that India from hereon needs to take a multifaceted approach to build a formidable healthcare ecosystem which will not only focus on treatment and prevention but also on proactive education, better hygiene standards, better surveillance and better monitoring mechanisms and the whole society’s involvement in these initiatives at large.